Showing posts with label Missouri Constitution. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Missouri Constitution. Show all posts

Wednesday, July 29, 2026

Summary on Missouri Amendment 5 of 2026 (Income Tax Replacement)

These are the notes that folks requested from the Lawrence County Ballot Proposition Information Meeting last night (28 July 2026). My notes from Amendment 4 have also been posted. For this set of notes, I have to start out by explaining the physical demonstration a little bit, or, you could just watch it, link below.

Also see my Hancock Amendment self-guided tour.

Water and Pitcher Model For Tax Base: Save the Chicks!

I started my portion of the presentation with a physical model demonstrating tax base vs tax rate and necessities exemptions. These are features of tax policy that are hard for many people to envision. I, myself, often need to think about liquids and volumes. This is what started the back-of-the-envelope sketch that got borrowed by Carl Bearden for a revision of his white paper

The video of the demonstration was shared on Facebook. The demonstration itself happens in the first few minutes and then it continues with the resulting discussion between myself (as Mount Pleasant Committeeman), Committee Chairman Dane Roaseau (LCRCC), State Representative Mitch Boggs (R-157), and State Representative Darin Chappell (R-137). The video was recorded and shared by the Roaseaus.

  • The colored water represents the income tax revenue that needs to be replaced.
  • This is a fixed volume.
  • If we pour the water into a narrow container (the tall graduated cyllinder in the video), the water level will be high.
    • A narrow sales tax covering fewer things requires a higher rate to make revenue.
  • If we pour into the wide bin instead, the water level will be much lower: volume = base x height
    • A wider sales tax (covers more things) gathers the same revenue at a lower rate.
    • Missouri's sales tax only covers about 30% of the consumer economy, partly because many goods which used to be taxed (think about records and entertainment) have moved to digital services.
  • This is why Amendment 5 sets the stage to widen the sales tax base: it lets the sales tax rate remain reasonable.

Add Rocks

If you set out a trough of water for chicks or ducklings, the young birds will often get stuck in the trough and drown. To save the chicks, add rocks. When you add rocks, two things happen:

  1. The rocks give the young birds something to stand on to avoid drowning and hop back out.
  2. The water level is raised slightly.

This is the same way that necessities exclusions (like groceries) in sales tax work:

  • They give people a shelter to provide the basics without tax (people don't drown).
  • They raise the tax rate slightly for everyone.
  • The more exclusions get dropped in the tax code, the higher the water rises.

Ballot Language and Amendment Text

The ballot language and the full amendment text can be found on the Secretary of State's Website. I do not ever recommend that anyone decide whether to support a constitutional amendment from the ballot summary alone, no matter who writes it.

What It Does

  • Sets up a mechanism to phase out and permanently remove the income tax via revenue growth.
  • Authorizes the MO GA to widen the sales tax base OR adjust rates within a five year period to replace income tax revenue.
  • Sets limits on tax adjustments to be revenue neutral in the same bill.
  • Specifies how windfalls will be avoided at the local level.
  • Leaves Hancock (18 and 18(e)) protections in place before, during, and after the five year period.

My Analysis

  • Strongly prudent and conservative approach on several fronts:
    1. Splits framework that belongs in the Constitution from policy to be decided by the GA.
    2. Fault-tolerant: Does not assume that revenue projects will be correct (what happened to Kansas) and reduces income tax based on actual revenue.
    3. Allows a five-year period to negotiate and implement incrementally.
    4. Any problems encountered can be fixed in statute, by IP (regardless of Amendment 4), or referendum.
    5. Once gone, income tax stays gone (absent another amendment).
  • The Missouri economic numbers show that a consumption tax + normal economic growth can replace income tax here.
    • Missouri is 46th in the nation for per capita tax burden (only 4 states lower burden).
    • 9 states have no income tax and 16 are heading in the same direction.
    • None of those have obnoxious sales tax rates like opponents are predicting as nightmare scenarios.
    • Missouri sales tax only covers about 30% of the consumer economy.
    • Kehoe (backed by the MO Auditor and economist Aaron Hedlund, etc), suggests expanding the tax base to cover about 2/3 of the consumer economy.
      • Will cover most of the income tax revenue.
      • Leaves generous carve outs for necessities.
      • Commitment that will not touch
        1. Medical (federal law restricts state taxes anyway)
        2. Agriculture
        3. Real-estate
      • And it is widely accepted (Governor, legislators) that the grocery tax can be eliminated.
      • This would end up with a tax rate between 5-6%, slightly-reduced local rates (windfall), and the remainder of the income tax eaten up by growth.
      • Carl Bearden (June 2026) also wrote a white paper that presents a model for a potential tax structure.
        • Not important to agree with his ideas or numbers.
        • Shows that numbers work and gives detailed starting point for exploring options.
    • Consumption tax produces more stable revenue than income tax; wide and shallow is more stable than narrow and deep (see: (Bearden June 2026 p12).)
    • Darin Chappel's FairTax proposal is in play as a package solution.
    • Many people warn that all of these tax changes can be done without a vote after Amendment 5, but that is based on a mistaken understanding of what the Hancock Amendment already allows.

    Possible Dangers

    Unlikely Things People Throw Out

    Most detractor nightmare scenarios are not credible:

    • Predictions that we will have a wide and deep consumption tax not credible:
      • revenue neutrality prohibits.
      • No income-tax-less state has gone that route.
      • Hancock still prevents creep past elimination of income tax.
    • Same goes for the GA not limiting grocery tax, providing core exemptions: it would be political suicide for no apparent reason.
      • Providing necessities exemptions for low-income Missourians is straight-forward.
      • People have choices about how/when to pay tax;
      • In any case the rich consume more goods and services than the poor.
    • Kansas style budget crisis is avoided by the framework.
    • There is no double taxation
      • the only way the income tax remains is if the consumption taxes fail to generate revenue.
    • Taxes on real-estate sales. Already prohibited elsewhere, anyway excluded by definition of "goods" in law.
    • Economic catastrophe causes revenue crisis
      • If we do have an economic catastrophe, an income tax is the least stable revenue source; Staying with status quo would be worst choice.

    More Likely Problems

    But, there are some real potential problems. The biggest ones are:

    1. No agreement on a plan within five years.
      • Technical problem not that hard; human problem is real.
      • Free-rider and holdout problem with exemptions could:
        • Tank agreement.
        • Sap revenue to shrink income tax.
    2. Industry-specific carve-outs for consumption tax can corrupt wide and shallow.
    3. GA could be too aggressive, not staging changes.
    4. Changes do not meet revenue targets or growth takes longer than expected to develop.

    On the Balance

    All of these, however, are survivable and correctable. In the case of economic catastrophe, a transition to a wide and shallow consumption tax would be exactly what we would want.

    As the Mises Institute pointed out after the Kansas failure, lower taxes (esp income tax) does generate growth, but growth does not immediately equate to revenue. Tax reduction primarily spurs savings and investment (reinforced here by consumption tax) and only secondarily generates revenue. Actual performance of the taxes depends on peoples' choices, inherently unpredictable.

    But this is not really a big problem because the measure is built to reduce income tax as revenue is generated. There is no hard cap to force a budget crisis like Kansas. Even in the case of Kansas, as pointed out in (Jansen 2019), Kansas made every possible mistake, but it was still correctable and did no detectable long-term economic harm. They ended with a hybrid system: a reduced income tax (stepped back up a touch from the 2012 cuts) and an increased sales tax, overall moderate.

    As for the corruption in carve outs, this is the most realistic problem. It is not, however, any different from what we have with income tax and is likely to be somewhat better by at least providing an opportunity to clean out decades of exceptions. This is almost certainly has many of the special interests panicked.

    If no agreement can be reached, the income tax still goes away. The biggest downside would be not updating the sales tax base and making it long-term stable.

    Hancock Amendment

    Many of the misconceptions on Amendment 5 come from misunderstanding the Hancock Amendment. (Tsapelas 2019) provides a detailed history and reference on Hancock's benefits and problems. The Hancock Amendment is a critical piece of the Missouri Constitution. Understanding how it works is important beyond Amendment 5.

    I have also provided an experimental AI-based self-guided tour of the Hancock Amendment.

    Conclusion

    Amendment 5 presents a significant opportunity to get rid of income tax. The need to have the General Assembly agree on a sales tax plan presents risks, but no extraordinary risks that do not already exist. The General Assembly already has significant power to rearrange taxes under the Hancock Amendment without a vote.

    Bibliography/Further Reading

    Bearden June 2026
    Bearden, C. (2026). Revenue-neutral Tax Reform Sales Tax Base and Rates Model. https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fo/ofwcwlhya9twmsfb8wos6/AOMoWqWH17DJ8ZTQZ60yQ70/Missouri%27s%20Roadmap%20to%20an%20Improved%20Economic%20Future/Revenue%20Neutral%20Tax%20Reform%20-%20Suggested%20Sales%20Tax%20Base%20and%20Rates%20Model_V2.pdf?rlkey=6o9bxqbra2rhilkm0lcf08i4r&dl=0
    Jansen 2019
    Jansen, D. W. (2019). What Happened In Kansas: the 2012 Tax Reform, the Economy, and the Lessons for Us All [Technical report]. Show-Me Institute. https://showmeinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/20190722%20Kansas%20Tax%20Reform%20-%20Jansen.pdf
    Tsapelas 2019
    Tsapelas, E. (2024). MISSOURI ’ S HANCOCK AMENDMENT : A PRIMER [Technical report]. Show-Me Institute. https://showmeinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/20240306-Tsapelas-Hancock-Amendment.pdf

Quick Notes on Missouri Amendment 4 (2026)

Quick Notes on Missouri Amendment 4 of 2026 (Initiative Petition Reform)

I was asked last night after the Lawrence County Information Meeting to post these quick notes to counter persistent bad assumptions about Amendment 4 of 2026 (Initiative Petititon Reform). They are mostly the raw bullet points from my own notebook, but I have tried to touch up some of the links and citations to other notes and PDFs so that they will go somewhere for you. This is just a summary of what I talked about&em; I have written in more detail in various places.

Ballot and Amendment Text

The ballot language and the full amendment text can be found on the Secretary of State's Website. I do not ever recommend that anyone decide whether to support a constitutional amendment from the ballot summary alone, no matter who writes it.

What It Does

  • For amendments proposed by initiative petition only.
  • The amendment must pass by a majority in each of the 8 congressional districts rather than
  • a majority statewide only

Amendment 4 is a clumsy tool: of all of the different proposals for IP reform, I like it the least. Ron Calzone is correct on that point. But it plugs a hole now and it can be adjusted later (see below).

Two Major Wrong Assumptions

Initiative Petition is "the People" vs "the Legislature"

This is simply not true.

  • "the people" had two options for amending the Constitution in the original design:
    1. amendments proposed Legislature they elect and ratified by statewide vote
    2. amendments proposed by delegates they send to constitutional convention and ratified by statewide vote.
  • Initiative petition (Ch III:§49 & Ch III:§50) was bolted onto this as part of an early 20th century (Wilsonian) Progressive movement to bypass the structural guarantees of the constitution(s).
  • IP is "direct democracy", which experience has demonstrated does not represent the "deliberate will" of "the people".
  • What you are really looking at is the different methods by which "the people" amend the Constitution.
  • Initiative Petition is the worst of the available methods
  • Amendment 4 does not touch either the legislative approach or the convention approach.

The Legislature Will Never Vote to Reduce Its Own Power...

  • ...therefore (says the argument), once Amendment 4 passes, we will never be able to fix the threshold for legislative amendments (which probably ought to be done).<.li>
  • This is false for at least two reasons:
    1. The convention approach is still open
    2. IP itself was proposed by the legislature (88th GA, Amendment 3)
      • So was, e.g., the addition of §18(e) to the Hancock in 1996
  • Legislatures will vote to reduce their own power when they fear each other or fear a future legislature.
  • This argument does not play strongly enough at the moment, but it will eventually.
  • If it does not, a convention can force the change.

Additional Background

Dinan, J. (2019). Amending Missouri’s Constitution: Accounting for the Frequency of Amendments and Considering Revisions to the Amendment Process [Technical report]. https://showmeinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/20190731%20Amending%20the%20Constitution%20-%20Dinan_1.pdf

  • This is often quoted by the opposition to Amendment 4 because it shows that the majority of amendments passed (1945-2019) are passed by the legislature, not by IP.
  • While this is true,
    • The report breaks amendments into categories with different dangers
    • Policy-enactment amendments which bypass deliberative process and put policy in the Constitution (where it does not belong) are the worst danger
    • Such policy-enactment amendments ALL come from IP
    • A rash of IPs were passed between 1908 and 1945, so much so that the 1945 convention tried to tweak IP to dampen them
    • A rash of damaging IPs has occurred since 2019.
  • The report itself is very good and worth reading.

Wednesday, July 22, 2026

Self-Guided Exploration of the Missouri Hancock Amendment: AI Prompt Engineering

In the runup to the 4 August 2026 primary, there has been a great deal of ugly discussion regarding Amendment 5, the proposal to replace the Missouri Income tax. This post is not really about Amendment 5, but is rather targeted at two different sources of deep misunderstandings of the Missouri Constitution generally and the Hancock Amendment specifically. The first source of frustration is that many Missourians do not actually understand what the Hancock Amendment does (and does not do). This is quite understandable because it takes some work to wrap one's brain around Hancock. On the other hand, one cannot understand a proposal that affects the Hancock Amendment without understanding the Hancock Amendment. This is where the second source of frustration comes in: people ask chatbots to tell them what Hancock does; the chatbot may or may not give them accurate information because many common chatbots use social media among their sources. The chatbot then simply feeds the reader back recycled misunderstandings from other people. Now we get to what this post is really about: a better way to use a chatbot which does not tell you how to understand Chapter X, Sections 16 through 24, of the Missouri Constitution but guides you through the process of figuring it out yourself.

The idea is fairly simple: I include a chatbot prompt below which will tell your LLM to walk you through a self-guided tour of this crucial part of the Missouri Constitution. In order to complete the tour, you have to find the Constitution text yourself (from any of the suggested sources). The model will guide you to the specific parts of the Constitution you need. You then get asked and can ask questions about it in a sort of back and forth scavenger hunt to answer four questions about Hancock. The chatbot suggests places you can find the answers, but you, yourself, do the heavy lifting. Because you are looking at the authoritative source yourself, you do not need to believe what the chatbot tells you (or what I tell you). In one of my test runs, the chatbot seems to have had sections 16 and 17 of chapter X numbered incorrectly in its training data. This still worked because I was looking right at the official text from the Secretary or State and could see what was actually correct. It is possible that the LLM got the incorrect information from a secondary website or a file which contained a typo, but the problem becomes a learning opportunity as you face and solve an everyday issue with understanding law.

I developed this prompt for and tested it with Proton's Lumo 2.1, the service included with Proton's privacy-enabled mail and other services. I also tested it running entirely locally on IBM's open source Granite 4.1:3b model using Ollama on my laptop. Both options are private and the latter is data-center free. The prompt has been optimized to run with a 4K prompt limit and ought run in a variety of different models, whether they are connected to the Internet or not. The main difference will be whether your model has access to recent Missouri revenue information if you ask it for more information about the revenue calculations in sections 18(a) or 18(e). In the case of the IBM Granite LLM, it only had budget data through 2022. In either case, you can do as I did and just bring up the 2025 Missouri Budget PDF in a separate window (a good exercise in and of itself!) and find recent Hancock thresholds calculated there for you. It's a model-- play with it.

The Prompt

Without further delay, here is my 6th revision of the HancockLesson Prompt. If you are interested in how I made it and the prompt engineering behind it, and will add that at the end.

  HANCOCKLESSON PROMPT — SIXTH DRAFT (CORRECTED SECTION NUMBERS AND
READING ORDER)

ROLE
You are a patient, plainspoken tutor guiding one learner—no legal training,
may read at a high-school level—through a self-paced study of the Missouri
Hancock Amendment (Article X, §§ 16–24 of the Missouri Constitution). Speak
in short sentences, define every legal term you use, never assume prior
knowledge. Be formal but warm. Correct mistakes gently, celebrate progress
explicitly.

SCOPE OF THE LESSON
Keep these four questions in mind throughout. By the end, the learner should
be able to give reasonable answers to all:

  Q1.  What powers of the legislature does the Amendment restrict?
  Q2.  Under what circumstances does the Amendment allow the legislature to
       alter or raise taxes on Missourians?
  Q3.  What might the legislature do to raise or alter taxes WITHOUT the
       proposal needing to go to a vote of the people?
  Q4.  What kinds of things might occur under this Amendment if a tax change
       is passed which is found to create "new annual revenue" for the state
       or the local governments?

TRACKING SYSTEM
At several checkpoints, assess progress on these four questions. Each question
has three possible states:

  [ ]   Not Yet        – the learner hasn't encountered enough material to begin
  [*]   Partial        – the learner understands some elements but not all
  [✓]   Got It         – the learner can articulate a reasonable answer citing specific sections

Record progress visibly at each checkpoint so the learner sees where they stand.

DEPTH CONTROL
The learner controls how much detail they receive at any point. At the start,
explain these options plainly:

  DEFAULT MODE — Short, punchy explanations (about 2–3 sentences). This is how
    the chatbot will operate unless the learner asks for more. Each response
    ends with a comprehension question or an invitation to continue.

  DEEP-DIVE MODE — The learner may say "go deeper," "give me more detail," or
    "explain that more fully." When this happens, the chatbot expands its
    explanation to a fuller treatment—still in plain English but longer, with
    examples, hypotheticals, and references to specific authority. Confirm:
    "I'll give you a fuller explanation. Say 'back to normal' when ready to move on."

  TARGETED QUESTION MODE — The learner may ask a specific question at any time,
    even if it takes the conversation away from the current section. Answer it
    and help the learner return to where they were.

  RULES OF CONSTRUCTION — At any point the learner may ask about a rule of
    legal construction (how courts interpret legal language). Explain it plainly
    and, when relevant, show how it applies to the specific text the learner is
    reading. If the learner wants a deeper treatment, shift into DEEP-DIVE MODE.

Periodically remind the learner: "Remember, you can ask me to go deeper on
anything, or ask about rules of how courts interpret this language, at any time."

PHASE 1: FINDING THE LAW AND SETTING UP
───────────────────────────────────────
1. Ask the learner whether they already have a copy of the Missouri Constitution
   handy. If not, point them to: official online text (Missouri Secretary of
   State or Missouri General Assembly), Ballotpedia's annotated text of Article X,
   Justia's HTML version, or a printed handbook (public libraries carry the
   "Missouri Revised Statutes" with the Constitution bound in front).
2. Have the learner open to Article X ("Taxation"), specifically §§ 16–24.
   Confirm together that they can see those section headings.
3. Briefly explain WHY the Constitution—not a statute—is the place we look:
   the Constitution outranks ordinary statutes, so a constitutional amendment
   is the strongest kind of tax limit.
4. Share the four SCOPE questions with the learner now. Display the questions
   along with the tracking system. Tell them these are the questions we're
   working toward and we'll check progress at several points.
5. Introduce DEPTH CONTROL to the learner. Make sure they understand they can
   ask for longer explanations, targeted questions, or deeper treatment of rules
   of construction at any time.
6. Initial Progress Check (Check-in 1): Record the starting position. At this
   point, most learners will have "[ ] Not Yet" for all four questions. Confirm
   this together and save the baseline.

PHASE 2: SCANNING, DEFINITIONS, AND PRIORITY ORDER
───────────────────────────────────────────────────
7. Ask the learner to skim each section heading from § 16 through § 24 and, in
   their own words, guess what each section is about. Do not correct yet—just
   collect guesses.
8. Walk through the guesses together. Give a one-sentence plain-language summary
   for each section:
      § 16   - describes the purpose and key provisions of the
   sections 17 through 24.
      § 17   – defines key terms used in the Amendment.
      § 18   – the core spending/tax lid and the refund mechanism.
      § 18(e) – added later; requires voter approval for tax or fee increases above a dollar threshold.
      § 19   – tells how the limit may be exceeded (emergency declaration).
      §§ 20–24 – implementation, local-government provisions, enforcement, and effective date.
9. Explain the priority reading order (not numerical):
      STEP A  →  §§ 16 & 17 (Purpose and definitions — learn the vocabulary first)
      STEP B  →  § 18   (The core revenue limit and refund trigger)
      STEP C  →  § 18(e) (Voter-approval requirement — the heart of Q2, Q3, and Q4)
      STEP D  →  §§ 18(e)3 and 19 (Emergency override — another way the legislature can act without a vote)
      STEP E  →  §§ 20–21 (Local-government provisions)
      STEP F  →  §§ 22–24 (Enforcement, severability, effective date)
    Tell the learner: "We start with definitions so that every word we encounter
    later already makes sense. Then we tackle the most important sections before
    moving on to supporting and housekeeping provisions."
10. Identify terms that the learner will need defined. Some are defined inside
    the Amendment itself (§ 17); some elsewhere in the Constitution; some in
    statute or case law. Suggest these reference aids: Black's Law Dictionary
    (most libraries have it), the "Legal Construction" primer on the Missouri
    Bar website, Missouri caselaw via Casenet or Google Scholar (free).
    When teaching a rule of construction, use this framework: NAME the rule,
    STATE the rule in one sentence, SHOW how it applies to the specific text
    being read, OFFER to go deeper if the learner wishes.
    Be prepared to teach these rules when they arise naturally: plain meaning,
    expressio unius, ejusdem generis, noscitur a sociis, voter intent,
    specific-over-general. Introduce them one at a time, only when the reading
    makes them relevant.

PHASE 3: CLAUSE-BY-CLAUSE READING WITH PROGRESS CHECKPOINTS
─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
11. Read the sections in the priority order established in Step 9. For each
    section, read aloud—or have the learner read—each numbered paragraph. After
    each paragraph:
     a. Restate the paragraph in one sentence of plain English.
     b. Ask the learner to restate it in their own words.
     c. Ask one comprehension question that checks a specific detail.
     d. Only move on when the learner's restatement is substantially correct.
    DEFAULT PACING: Do not lecture for more than three sentences before pausing
    to ask a question or invite a response. However, the learner may request a
    longer explanation at any time by saying "go deeper," "give me more detail,"
    or similar phrases. When this happens, suspend the three-sentence limit and
    provide a fuller treatment. Resume default pacing when the learner signals
    readiness (e.g., "got it," "okay," "back to normal").
12. SPECIAL EMPHASIS on §§ 16 & 17 (Step A): Treat this as a
    vocabulary session. Build a running glossary with the learner as
    terms are encountered. Encourage the learner to jot down each
    defined term and its definition. Note explicitly that some terms
    used in later sections are NOT defined in § 17 and will need to be
    looked up in outside sources. Flag those when you reach them.
13. After completing Step A, run Progress Check-in 2. Ask the learner which
    questions they now feel equipped to address. Some questions (like Q1 about
    legislative restrictions) may remain "[ ] Not Yet" because § 17 is just
    definitions. Others may shift to "[*] Partial" as the learner recognizes
    key vocabulary. Record the updated status. Display the tracker in the same
    format as Check-in 1. Affirm any movement forward, even small. Normalize
    if all remain "[ ]" and remind the learner the core sections are ahead.
14. SPECIAL EMPHASIS on § 18 and § 18(e) (Steps B and C): These are the most
    substantive sections. Pace yourself more slowly here. While working through
    § 18(e), make sure the learner can:
      • Identify the dollar/threshold test ($50 million adjusted, or
    1% of total state revenues, whichever is less).
      • Understand what counts as "new annual revenue."
      • Identify the stated exceptions that let the legislature act without a
        public vote.
      • Explain the refund-and-remedy provision for taxes collected in violation.
15. After completing § 18(e), run Progress Check-in 3 (MIDPOINT). This is the
    critical junction. Most learners should now show significant progress on Q2,
    Q3, and Q4. Ask the learner to attempt a brief verbal answer for each
    question. Based on their responses, update the tracker. Display the tracker
    in the same format as Check-in 1. Pause and reflect with the learner:
    • Which questions moved from "[ ]" to "[*]" or "[✓]"?
    • Which sections were most responsible for each gain?
    • What remains unclear?
    Celebrate visible progress. If any question is still "[ ] Not Yet" at this
    midpoint, flag it for attention in the remaining sections.
16. For Steps D–F (§§ 18(e)3, 19, 20–24), move at the learner's preferred pace.
    These sections deepen context but are less central to the four target
    questions. If the learner is pressed for time, you may summarize §§ 22–24
    briefly and move toward the wrap-up.
17. After completing all priority sections (Step F), run Progress Check-in 4
    (FINAL ASSESSMENT). Pose Q1–Q4 one at a time. Do NOT accept one-word
    answers; ask the learner to explain their reasoning and cite specific
    sections. Update the tracker one final time. Display the tracker in the
    same format as Check-in 1. If any question remains "[*] Partial" or "[ ]
    Not Yet," identify what specific gap remains. Refer back to the relevant
    clause and offer to review it in more depth. Alternatively, suggest targeted
    follow-up resources (caselaw, commentary, etc.).

PHASE 4: WRAP-UP AND NEXT STEPS
───────────────────────────────
18. Display the final progress tracker alongside the initial tracker from
    Check-in 1. Let the learner see the full trajectory of improvement.
19. Tell the learner which learning goals they have met and which (if any)
    still need work.
20. Offer to continue: the learner may wish to explore related topics (e.g.,
    local-government tax limits under §§ 20–21, the history of the Hancock
    Amendment, notable court cases, or current Missouri tax proposals).
21. End with a brief recap of the three or four most important take-aways.

STYLE RULES (COMPACT BLOCK)
────────────────────────────
• Use plain English. Short paragraphs. One idea per paragraph.
• Whenever a legal term appears for the first time, define it immediately, in
  parentheses, e.g.: "General Assembly (Missouri's name for its state legislature)."
• DEFAULT PACING: Do not lecture for more than three sentences before pausing
  to ask a question or invite a response. Learner may request a longer
  explanation at any time by saying "go deeper," "give me more detail," or
  similar. Honor that request, expand the explanation, and return to normal
  pacing when the learner signals readiness.
• If the learner gives a wrong answer, first affirm the attempt, then guide
  them to the correct text.
• At each checkpoint, display the progress tracker in a consistent visual
  format so the learner can easily compare across sessions.
• Remind the learner periodically—especially early in the lesson—that they
  control the depth: "Remember, you can ask me to go deeper on anything, or
  ask about rules of how courts interpret this language, at any time."
• If the learner stops mid-session, save and summarize the current tracker.
  Offer to resume with the same tracker next time.

Prompt Engineering How-To

Many people use Large Language Models (LLMs) like they use a Google Search: they just type in what they want to know and expect it to tell them. This is often exactly the wrong way to use them and frequently yields very iffy results. The better approach is to let the LLM ask you questions and refine its understanding of what you want to know before trying to answer. There is also the additional downside to relying on an LLM that by letting a machine do your thinking, you are not really learning anything.

The basic idea behind the HancockLesson Prompt is that, rather than have the Large Language Model (LLM) answer the question, you ask it to generate another prompt for an LLM that will then help you answer the question and learn the topic. This first prompt is called a metaprompt because it is a prompt about a prompt. You can then use the LLM to critique and improve the prompt in several back-and-forth iterations before you ever try to run it. In this particular case, I ended up with four major drafts before I ran it the first time, then some more back and forth the make the fifth draft. Finally, after some more testing, I hand-tweaked the 6th draft that was posted above.

Once you have a final prompt that works well, you can go back later and use it as a template to generate a different prompt: say, a self-guided tour of a different part of Missouri law or about the Arkansas Constitution.

So, here is the metaprompt I used to start with:

  The goal of this prompt is to produce and refine another prompt. We
will call the prompt to be produced HancockLesson. When HancockLesson
is executed by a competent chatbot (including potentially Lumo), the
chatbot will guide and facilitate the user-- who is not experienced in
law and may have as low as a highschool level of reading-- through the process
of learning about the Missouri Handock Amendment. By going through the
process, the user ought to discover what sources are available to find
information about the Missouri Constitution, including its
authoritative text (online or offline), and how to navigate or search
that text. The user ought be prompted to scan the sections to
understand their basic purposes, including where to find definitions
for terms (which may be defined within the Hancock Amendment itself,
within the Missouri Constitution, or outside the Missouri
Constitution. Throughout this process, the chatbot may suggest sources
to the user for finding definitions and for understanding basic rules
of legal construction. The chatbot ought to then prompt the user to
read through the Amendment clause by clause and work with the user to
achieve at least a high-level understanding of each element of the
Amendment, especially Section 18e.

The process ought iterate for as long as the user wishes to
continue. The chatbot may suggest to the user when the user has
appeared to achieve major learning goals. When this process is
completed, the user ought to be able to understand and be able to give
reasonable answers to the following kinds of questions:

* What powers of the legislature does the Amendment restrict?

* Under what circumstances does the amendment allow the legislature to
  alter or raise taxes on Missourians?
  
* What might the legislature do to raise or alter taxes *without* the
  proposal needing to go to a vote of the people?
  
* What kinds of things might occur under this amendment if a tax
  change is passed which is found to create "new annual revenue" for
  the state or the local governments?
  
Please generate a first draft of this prompt now.

This prompt was not perfect, but the whole point is that it did not have to be. The next step is to ask the model to critique its own prompt: what can be improved. Some models will do this part automatically, others may need to be told to make suggestions (it depends to some extent on your default settings and on the initial prompt in those settings). Then you can go back and forth: "I like your second and third suggestion, but don't worry about the first one," or "Can we make this a bit smaller to fit inside a 4k prompt limit?" I find it helps if you have it number the drafts so that you can refer back to them in the conversation and keep track of them in your own notes. I usually save pieces of these sessions in my notebook to potentially reuse later or to run the same prompt on different models. Over the last several years, I have done this methodically from time to time in order to learn about what the models are doing, how they work, and how they are changing in order to understand the issues that AI use poses. We cannot understand how these tools will change us unless we take some time to learn about them and to really learn how they "think".

In a future world where this technology will inevitably exist and continue to change, it will be critical to understand how to perform prompt engineering: knowing how to ask a question, how to refine that question (including refining your own understanding of the question), and evaluate the results. This is really one of the core skills that underlies computer programming, teaching, writing recipes, and other human tasks which required a structured approach and iterative thought process. I approach a prompt engineering task like this much the way I used to approach directing a junior programmer. In particular, leading a team of junior programmers is not just about giving them instructions and hoping that they will complete a task, but about advancing the understanding of the problem for the entire team.

The danger is that people who get in the habit of letting a machine do the thinking for them will never learn how to structure their own thoughts to perform these kinds of tasks, just like someone can use a phone or a computer without ever really learning how to program a computer or understand how it works.

In any case, in addition to producing this self-guided exploration of the Hancock Amendment to help other people, I also reached a better understanding of the nuts and bolts of the Constitution while testing the draft prompts and deliberately going down different paths. That makes me better informed about the proposed amendments on the upcoming ballot and it makes me a better teacher when people ask me questions (say, during our county information forum on the 28th of July). Hopefully, you will find it useful as well.

Version

You are looking at my first published version of this post containing the 6th draft of the HancockLesson prompt. I may make changes to it as people use it and give me feedback. c

Monday, November 3, 2014

Against Missouri Amendment 2 and Propensity Evidence In Sexual Crimes

There has been a low level of discussion on the ballot initiatives for tomorrow's election, including Amendment 2, "Rules of Evidence in the Prosecution of Crimes of a Sexual Nature Involving a Victim Under Eighteen Years of Age". In particular, I just received an email that the Missouri GOP has endorsed this Amendment. I therefore wanted to make a formal statement that I do not support Amendment 2.

The official ballot language is as follows:

Official Ballot Title: Shall the Missouri Constitution be amended so that it will be permissible to allow relevant evidence of prior criminal acts to be admissible in prosecutions for crimes of a sexual nature involving a victim under eighteen years of age?

If more resources are needed to defend increased prosecutions additional costs to governmental entities could be at least $1.4 million annually, otherwise the fiscal impact is expected to be limited. 

Fair Ballot Language:

A “yes” vote will amend the Missouri Constitution to allow evidence of prior criminal acts, whether charged or uncharged, to be considered by courts in prosecutions of sexual crimes that involve a victim under eighteen years of age. The amendment limits the use of such prior acts to support the victim’s testimony or show that the person charged is more likely to commit the crime. Further, the judge may exclude such prior acts if the value of considering them is substantially outweighed by the possibility of unfair prejudice to the person charged with committing the crime.

A “no” vote will not amend the Missouri Constitution regarding the use of evidence of prior criminal acts to prosecute sexual crimes.

If passed, this measure will have no impact on taxes.

[Proposed by the 97th General Assembly (First Regular Session) HJR 16]

Proponents of the measure claim that it merely brings Missouri in line with other states and federal rules which allow such 'propensity evidence'. This is not strictly true. The federal rules have very strict restrictions on propensity evidence across the board with a very limited exception for prosecution of sex crimes against minors. Most states closely align with the federal rules. The Missouri proposal is, by comparison, extremely broad, allowing not merely allegations of prior sex crimes against children but of virtually any criminal acts whether charged or uncharged.

Why is Propensity Evidence Bad?

Isn't that a good thing? I mean, we're talking about convicting child predators here, right? It is a good thing to convict the right people of the right crime. I do not see how it helps to turn a courtroom into a circus in order to convict the wrong person of the wrong crime. Opening up propensity evidence also violates several important Constitutional protections, including the right of the accused to face their accuser and the double jeopardy protections. Propensity evidence allows the prosecutor to bring in mere accusations of former conduct--- which may have resulted in dropped charges or a failed indictment, possibly even a not-guilty verdict previously or may not have been charged at all due to lack of proof or inadmissible evidence.

Worse still, we are amending the Constitution rather than simply implementing a rule or statute. A rule or statute can be readily adjusted later. The Constitution is difficult to correct if we find that it has gone seriously wrong.

An excellent blog on Simple Justice goes into many of the reasons that propensity evidence is a big problem. This blog was posted by a public defender in 2008 when Connecticut was dealing with many of these same issues. An excerpt:
The irony of this dichotomy is that uncharged prior bad acts are unproven by definition.  The court is supposed to act as gatekeeper, only admitting those prior bad acts that are shown by “clear and convincing evidence” to have occurred and were performed by the defendant.  This sometimes creates a “trial within a trial,” which puts a defendant in the position of not merely defending against the charged offense, but disproving the uncharged offense as well.
Missouri has serious problems with its public defender system which already leads many defendants to plea bargain even when they have not committed a crime. Propensity evidence may accelerate this problem because anyone with any black mark on their record may realize that they simply cannot win at trial. So now we have the situation where someone who is wrongly accused may have to plea out simply because they were wrongly accused before and because they do not have access to competent counsel to defend them. Meanwhile, when one person is locked up for a crime they did not commit, the person who actually did it goes free.

Plea bargaining creates a viscous cycle because once someone please for a crime they did not actually commit, then that becomes part of their record and becomes propensity evidence for the future. Like a bad movie, we start "rounding up the usual suspects" instead of actually investigating crimes. The usual suspects are almost never rich sons of well-connected individuals. The word "villein" actually means "villager" or "commoner". The British believed that well-bred aristocrats were simply incapable of committing murder, which is why the old murder mysteries always revolved around "uncovering the villein": finding the revolting peasant hidden in the midst of the perfumed aristocrats. Such a two-tiered system is inherently un-American, un-Christian, and unjust.

Text of Existing Rules and Proposed Changes

Federal Rule of Evidence 413: Similar Crimes In Sexual Assault Cases:
(a) Permitted Uses. In a criminal case in which a defendant is accused of a sexual assault, the court may admit evidence that the defendant committed any other sexual assault. The evidence may be considered on any matter to which it is relevant.
(b) Disclosure to the Defendant. If the prosecutor intends to offer this evidence, the prosecutor must disclose it to the defendant, including witnesses’ statements or a summary of the expected testimony. The prosecutor must do so at least 15 days before trial or at a later time that the court allows for good cause.
Text of HJR 16, the actual language of Amendment 2:
Section 18(c).  Notwithstanding the provisions of sections 17 and 18(a) of this article to the contrary, in prosecutions for crimes of a sexual nature involving a victim under eighteen years of age, relevant evidence of prior criminal acts, whether charged or uncharged, is admissible for the purpose of corroborating the victim's testimony or demonstrating the defendant's propensity to commit the crime with which he or she is presently charged.  The court may exclude relevant evidence of prior criminal acts if the probative value of the evidence is substantially outweighed by the danger of unfair prejudice. [emphasis mine]
Notice that the proposed Missouri amendment considers all "prior criminal acts, whether charged or uncharged" and does not require notice to the defendant. Compare the text of Federal Rule of Evidence 404 "Character Evidence; Crimes or Other Acts", particularly 404 b) and the rationale at the bottom. Propensity evidence is and always has been considered a bad idea. Just because someone says, "think of the children" doesn't make it suddenly a good idea, especially when amending the Constitution.

Please vote this bad idea down.

Addendum: Why Is This a Constitutional Amendment?

Above, I criticize this proposal for using a Constitutional Amendment rather than statutory change or rule. To be fair to the proponents of Amendment 2, this is not precisely the issue. It is true that the attempt has been made before to accomplish this by statutory change. RSMo 566.025 contains:

In prosecutions pursuant to this chapter or chapter 568, RSMo, of a sexual nature involving a victim under fourteen years of age, whether or not age is an element of the crime for which the defendant is on trial, evidence that the defendant has committed other charged or uncharged crimes of a sexual nature involving victims under fourteen years of age shall be admissible for the purpose of showing the propensity of the defendant to commit the crime or crimes with which he or she is charged unless the trial court finds that the probative value of such evidence is outweighed by the prejudicial effect.
Which was ruled un-Constitutional in State v. Ellison 239 S.W.3d 603 (Mo.banc) as violating Article Sections 17 and 18 of the Missouri Constitution (citing basically the same concerns with propensity evidence we outline above). Two other legislative attempts to admit propensity evidence have also failed in Missouri.

So, in one sense, a Constitutional amendment is the only way to accomplish the admission of propensity evidence, however:

  1. That does not make it a good idea. The exact same issues which caused the previous attempts to run afoul of the Missouri Bill of Rights still exist. If we throw those principles out the window for accusations of sexual assault, why do they have meaning for anything else?
  2. The proposed amendment is much more broad than RSMo 566.025 as can readily be seen by comparing the text quoted above. Amendment I admits a wider variety of crimes under a wider variety of circumstances than that which the courts already found problematic. Therefore:
  3. If we decided that propensity evidence was a necessary thing and we decided that amending the Constitution were the way to go about it, simple prudence and respect for the protections in our (state and US) Bills of Rights would dictate that we do so in the least intrusive way possible and then use more malleable statute to place further restrictions. For instance, we could allow the prosecutor to use only evidence of past charged or convicted offenses of sexual assault against minors. Or only charged offenses of sexual conduct (alleged victim of any age) and empower the writing of legislation or appropriate rules of evidence to tighten that down a bit.
Amendment 2 fails this test in all respects. There is an entire world of potential amendments in-between un-Constitutional 566.025 and the Amendment 2 text.